Análise da evolução da COVID-19 em Belo Horizonte baseada em um modelo epidemiológico SIRV

In this work, the SIRV (Susceptible – Infected – Recovered – Vaccinated) epidemiological model was used to evaluate the evolution of the number of new COVID-19 cases with the insertion of a vaccination campaign (first booster dose) in the population of Belo Horizonte in Minas Gerais, Brazil. The system of differential equations was solved numerically using the numerical method Runge-Kutta of 4th order, being implemented in Octave language. In the validation of the SIRV model, official data of newly infected COVID-19 cases released by the Municipality of the capital of Minas Gerais were used, between August 5, 2020 and April 1, 2022. According to the results obtained in this work, the SIRV model describes the population of newly infected, showing the stability and free control of the disease with the insertion of a vaccination campaign.